Kashubian Foresight 2050

What is “foresight” and why do we want to use it in relation to Kashubia?

Foresight is a method of creating future scenarios and is a part of future studies. It is a way of generating ideas about what might happen, an invitation to discuss potential, hypothetical, alternative versions and variants of reality that may seem impossible today. It is a creative activity, and in this sense, it should utilize imagination, because the future remains malleable – it is and will be subject to factors that we cannot even imagine today, that we do not expect. In this sense, it is also “multiple,” because it can unfold in various directions. It carries many possibilities, it is unfathomable, but this does not mean that we cannot, or even should not, discuss it and try to imagine it. Creating a scenario aims to broaden perspectives, raise awareness of existing and potential problems and trends, and raise questions about possible paths of development, etc. These can be defined using concepts such as anticipation, forecasting, building, or creating an image of the future. It is, to some extent, a training exercise for societal imagination.

However, the starting point is always information about the present, hence the important step of attempting to outline, at least briefly, a diagnosis focused on risks and opportunities, potentials and limitations, possibilities and weaknesses, problems and tasks. It also addresses who, what social forces, what institutions, environments, and groups could (or should) focus on and address these challenges? And perhaps also what should be created to be effective not only in thinking but also in acting in the future.
It is crucial to assume that future scenarios must present diverse visions, some of which are completely contradictory. This is possible by taking into account the diverse perspectives adopted by different groups participating in the foresight process. Such a discussion can and should involve not only experts (academic and non-academic), but also entrepreneurs, managers, public administration representatives, politicians, journalists, activists from non-governmental organizations and informal groups, etc. This includes key “stakeholders of the future”, namely young people. Foresight serves to enable people from such diverse groups and backgrounds to share their knowledge, express their expectations, aspirations, and concerns, and define their future interests.

This aspect of participation and engagement is particularly important in the case of ethnic foresight. There are various types of foresight, which are often combined (e.g., when preparing regional technology foresight):

1. local (e.g., urban),
2. regional (virtually all regions in Poland have undergone such a process—Pomerania 2030 is one example),
3. national (Poland has also had its own foresight),
4. sectoral (not only in relation to economic sectors, but also, for example, regarding science, etc.),
5. technological.

This project is the first attempt at preparing ethnic foresight. It is therefore a social and intellectual experiment (mental, and to some extent, through research). However, collective reflection is key, and for it to be successful, representatives of the diverse Kashubian community must be able to participate! The question of what Kashubia will be like in the “proverbial” year 2050 and who the Kashubs will be should spark our imagination, prompt reflection on the nature of “Kashubian today”, but also encourage us to think ahead.

The starting point should, of course, be diagnosis – and some of this diagnostic work has already been completed (see reports in etnotank.pl). However, during the Forum “Kashubia/Kashubs 2050: Future Scenarios,” we want to initiate a public debate on the challenges we face and launch a process of “collective imagining” what strands might lead us toward possible solutions. We are therefore embarking on an experimental process of community reflection, in which we invite all interested parties to participate.